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Apr 21, 2024

Forecasters monitor one system east of Caribbean as hurricane season begins to ‘ramp up’

The National Hurricane Center was monitoring only one disturbance with low chances of forming in the Atlantic Tuesday afternoon, but that is likely the calm before the storm. Hurricane season is only

The National Hurricane Center was monitoring only one disturbance with low chances of forming in the Atlantic Tuesday afternoon, but that is likely the calm before the storm.

Hurricane season is only beginning to “ramp up,” Michael Brennan, the director of the National Hurricane Center, said in a briefing that morning, despite the fact that the Atlantic has already seen five named storms this year.

The “vast majority” of activity will happen in the next three months, Brennan said as he pointed to a diagram of hurricane and tropical storm activity over the course of the season. “You can see the rapid increase we see over the next month to six weeks… as the Atlantic Hurricane Season reaches its peak in early September.”

The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring one disturbance east of the Caribbean.

“Environmental conditions are becoming less favorable” for a tropical depression to form east of the Caribbean in the next few days, forecasters wrote in their 2 p.m. advisory. The odds have dropped from 70-80% earlier this week to a 30% chance by Tuesday afternoon.

The showers and thunderstorms associated with the tropical wave, which was located about 800 miles north-northeast of the far eastern Caribbean, remained unorganized, experts said.

The tropical wave is expected to merge with a frontal system over the north central Atlantic in the next two or three days.

“Even though things might seem relatively quiet right now, that’s not that unusual for late July and early August,” Brennan said. “But we do tend to see that ramp up in activity as we head through August, September, and even lasting well into October.”